Here are some examples of questions I forecasted on last year, my rationale for the forecasts I made, and how I feel like the forecast turned out. All forecasts were made on 2021 Aug 5. I think doing this kind of practice (writing your rationale out and then examining how
Post co-written with Amber Dawn - In 1950, Alan Turing suggested that machines might one day be able to deceive a human in an ‘imitation game’ - a game where a human judge interacts with both a computer and a human and has to distinguish which is which. Since then,
“It Doesn’t Have to be Crazy at Work” by Jason Fried and David Heinemeier Hansson is a brazen ad for working at Basecamp, the company founded by the book’s authors. But if you can get past that, it has some good advice for those managing companies and designing
Cal Newport previously wrote “Deep Work”, which outlined a rule for success - you do your best work when you are in a large uninterrupted distraction-free block of time called a “deep work block”. Newport’s thesis is that a single uninterrupted 3-4 hour block of focused work on your
Chess is about conventional warfare. But conventional warefare is boring. We need some… nukes. Battle Chess is like Chess, but every piece has a special ability. One of these abilities might involve a nuke. Disclaimer: I made this game when I was in Elementary school. It sounded cool. I make
I like Star Trek: Deep Space Nine and want to watch it. But there are several problems: (1) I don’t want to commit the time to watch 176 episodes (2) I’ve seen about a third of DS9 already but not in any particular order, so watching would be
Alec Stapp and Caleb Watney, in founding their Institute for Progress, declared that "Progress is a Policy Choice". I agree, but I'm also worried about something a bit more simple - in addition to making progress, we also have to survive[1]. This survival is a
Summary * I find there have been ten accidental nuclear incidents in history where I think there was some non-negligble chance that, had things played out differently, there could've been a nuclear exchange. * I think the chance of another accidental nuclear incident happening in the next decade (2022-2032) is
I've been blogging since I was 17 (I'm 30 now[1]) and it has always been a really critical part of my intellectual development. Blogging helped me sort out my personal beliefs and philosophy, bringing me through atheism, and then an interest in philosophy, and then
The book “Managing to Change the World: The Nonprofit Manager's Guide to Getting Results” by Alison Green and Jerry Hauser comes highly recommended from a wide variety of top executive directors of non-profits, and after reading it, I can say these positive recommendations are entirely justified. Don’t
It's been awhile since I've posted some sort of links post. Maybe this can come back more for 2022? I read a lot of articles in the past six months. Here I’ve decided on my top ten favorites (in descending order). I present each one,
Throughout the New York City mayoral race, between January and June 2021, I made multiple predictions about the fate of various political candidates. I think these predictions are my most successful set so far in my forecasting career, greatly outperforming the conventional wisdom and netting >200% ROI on prediction